Hey,
I was planning on releasing the entire season-in-review essays to be avilable for purchase online, but I couldn't figure out how to sell stuff on Blogspot.
So, it will be released for free, one essay a day.
Also, the Blurb will review the various Brewers positions as well as options to improve.
This week, the Blurb will cover the Outfield.
Tuesday: Brewers Current Outfield Situation
Wednesday: Internal Options
Thursday: Player Spotlight (Either internal option or free agent)
Friday: Conclusions
Go Brewers
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Blurb 10/19: It was fun while it lasted
Note: This was written late Sunday Night, but I was unable to post this until now due to computer issues.
It's over. The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers season is over. It was written in the stars, but for the Brewers it was a million miles away. No more Prince Fielder, no more World Series chances.
This season isn't a complete failure though.
Think about this. If I had told you this time last year that the Brewers would make the NLCS, would you take that?
Now obviously the trades for Grienke, and Marcum changes the expectations. but still even at Spring Training many fans would have taken an NLCS berth.
This postseason has been magical for the Brewers. Consider Yovanni's dominating Game 1 start. The tenth-inning walkoff hit and subsequent f-bomb blast from Nyjer Morgan to win the NLDS. Plus, the Brewers had an amazing come from behind victory in Game 1 of the NLCS!
Houston, San Diego, Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Washington, Toronto, and Baltimore. What do all these teams have in common? They would love to be in our position. As Milwaukee Brewers fans, with our troubled history that only included (before this season) one postseason appearance in the previous 28 years, we should appreciate when these good years come around, and recognize this team for what it is not a complete success, but not a failure.
While I am not completely happy with all the decisions made, and the final result of the 2011 season. Let us remember the good moments, and not the bad ending. How about next year though, we win it all.
Go Brewers and Please Comment
It's over. The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers season is over. It was written in the stars, but for the Brewers it was a million miles away. No more Prince Fielder, no more World Series chances.
This season isn't a complete failure though.
Think about this. If I had told you this time last year that the Brewers would make the NLCS, would you take that?
Now obviously the trades for Grienke, and Marcum changes the expectations. but still even at Spring Training many fans would have taken an NLCS berth.
This postseason has been magical for the Brewers. Consider Yovanni's dominating Game 1 start. The tenth-inning walkoff hit and subsequent f-bomb blast from Nyjer Morgan to win the NLDS. Plus, the Brewers had an amazing come from behind victory in Game 1 of the NLCS!
Houston, San Diego, Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Washington, Toronto, and Baltimore. What do all these teams have in common? They would love to be in our position. As Milwaukee Brewers fans, with our troubled history that only included (before this season) one postseason appearance in the previous 28 years, we should appreciate when these good years come around, and recognize this team for what it is not a complete success, but not a failure.
While I am not completely happy with all the decisions made, and the final result of the 2011 season. Let us remember the good moments, and not the bad ending. How about next year though, we win it all.
Go Brewers and Please Comment
Monday, October 10, 2011
Blurb 10/11: No More NLCS Starts for Marcum
Shaun Marcum right now is not himself, and he is costing the Brewers a chance to advance to the World Series. In his last six starts (four regular season, two postseason), he has given up 30 runs in 33 innings pitched for a 8.18 ERA. He has a had one great start in that time frame (8 IP, 1ER), but besides that, there has been many nightmarish starts for Marcum. He is a detriment to the Brewers, and their success right now. I love Shaun Marcum, he is a good pitcher, and I have loved watching him throughout the season, but that shouldn't change what needs to be done. The window for success in the playoffs is so small that everyone needs to be performing at the top of their game, if they are not, they need to be replaced.
Ok, you may be saying, hypothetically if the Brewers do replace Shaun Marcum, who is this pitcher who can produce better. Here are three options to make up for a Marcum-less rotation:
1. Pitch everyone on short rest, and make your playoff rotation a three-man rotation (Game 3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Gallardo, 7 Grienke)
2. Marco Estrada (3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Estrada, 7 Gallardo)
3. Chris Narveson (3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Narveson, 7 Gallardo)
#1 shouldn't happen, and won't happen. The organization, I believe, doesn't feel comfortable pitching Grienke on short rest. End of story.
#2 is what I believe the Brewers should do even though it may cause a lot of second guessing especially if they are wrong. Also Marco Estrada should only start if the Brewers have a 3-2 game lead going into Game 6. Marco shouldn't be the pitcher trying to stave off elimination especially in his first postseason start. If that situation occurred, and it failed, Roenicke would never hear the end of it. But if Estrada does lose a start if the Brewers have the lead, they still have Gallardo at home to go to the World Series. I will take that ten out of ten times.
#3 is another decent option. Chris Narveson has proven to be an average starter throughout the year which is still an improvement over what the rotation has given us so far. But as a starter, Chris Narveson (4.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) has been inferior to Marco Estrada (3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) especially at home (Chris Narveson home: 4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, Marco Estrada as a starter at home: 2.74 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).
Desperate times call for desperate measures. I believe that Marcum needs to take at least one start off to regain his composure. If Estrada does good, ride the hot hand. If Estrada struggles, replace him with Narveson, if Narveson struggles then you can go back to Marcum.
Marco Estrada should start in game 6, especially if the Brewers are leading 3-2. Even if Estrada can only pitch around 70 pitches, it will still be around what Marcum has pitched the last two games. Narveson can then come in until the 5th or 6th and set up Saxrod (SAito, AXford, k-ROD).
As we Brewers fans know all to well, playoff appearances don't come around to often. Loyalty to a player, in this case Shaun Marcum, should not trump what needs to be done in the playoffs to win the World Series.
Go Brewers and Please Comment.
Ok, you may be saying, hypothetically if the Brewers do replace Shaun Marcum, who is this pitcher who can produce better. Here are three options to make up for a Marcum-less rotation:
1. Pitch everyone on short rest, and make your playoff rotation a three-man rotation (Game 3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Gallardo, 7 Grienke)
2. Marco Estrada (3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Estrada, 7 Gallardo)
3. Chris Narveson (3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Narveson, 7 Gallardo)
#1 shouldn't happen, and won't happen. The organization, I believe, doesn't feel comfortable pitching Grienke on short rest. End of story.
#2 is what I believe the Brewers should do even though it may cause a lot of second guessing especially if they are wrong. Also Marco Estrada should only start if the Brewers have a 3-2 game lead going into Game 6. Marco shouldn't be the pitcher trying to stave off elimination especially in his first postseason start. If that situation occurred, and it failed, Roenicke would never hear the end of it. But if Estrada does lose a start if the Brewers have the lead, they still have Gallardo at home to go to the World Series. I will take that ten out of ten times.
#3 is another decent option. Chris Narveson has proven to be an average starter throughout the year which is still an improvement over what the rotation has given us so far. But as a starter, Chris Narveson (4.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) has been inferior to Marco Estrada (3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) especially at home (Chris Narveson home: 4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, Marco Estrada as a starter at home: 2.74 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).
Desperate times call for desperate measures. I believe that Marcum needs to take at least one start off to regain his composure. If Estrada does good, ride the hot hand. If Estrada struggles, replace him with Narveson, if Narveson struggles then you can go back to Marcum.
Marco Estrada should start in game 6, especially if the Brewers are leading 3-2. Even if Estrada can only pitch around 70 pitches, it will still be around what Marcum has pitched the last two games. Narveson can then come in until the 5th or 6th and set up Saxrod (SAito, AXford, k-ROD).
As we Brewers fans know all to well, playoff appearances don't come around to often. Loyalty to a player, in this case Shaun Marcum, should not trump what needs to be done in the playoffs to win the World Series.
Go Brewers and Please Comment.
Defensive Substitutions
For the second straight (and third overall playoff game), Ron Roenicke has removed Corey Hart for a defensive replacement. While I believe that Nyjer Morgan or Carlos Gomez is a clear defensive upgrade over Corey Hart, there is a player in left field that is a worse defender than Corey, and in the right situation should be removed from the outfield.
According to fangraphs.com, Carlos Gomez is the best defensive outfielder, than comes Nyjer Morgan, Corey Hart, and trudging in at last place is Ryan Braun. While Ryan Braun's bat is enough to warrant him an MVP award, his defensive isn't helping his case. In the right situation (like the game yesterday when the Brewers have a three-plus run lead), the extra offense provided by Braun's bat isn't worth enough to overlook his poor defense that may prove to be costly.
Most likely, the reason why Roenicke is removing Hart over Braun, is because it would cause a complete revolt in Brewer land. But statistically, the next time that Roenicke has a 9-6 lead in the 8th, the outfield should be: Corey Hart LF (If he is open to moving to Left, if not insert Nyjer Morgan here), Carlos Gomez CF, Nyjer Morgan RF. The Brewers need to maximize every opportunity avilable including optimizing its outfield defense late in games when they have the lead.
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
According to fangraphs.com, Carlos Gomez is the best defensive outfielder, than comes Nyjer Morgan, Corey Hart, and trudging in at last place is Ryan Braun. While Ryan Braun's bat is enough to warrant him an MVP award, his defensive isn't helping his case. In the right situation (like the game yesterday when the Brewers have a three-plus run lead), the extra offense provided by Braun's bat isn't worth enough to overlook his poor defense that may prove to be costly.
Most likely, the reason why Roenicke is removing Hart over Braun, is because it would cause a complete revolt in Brewer land. But statistically, the next time that Roenicke has a 9-6 lead in the 8th, the outfield should be: Corey Hart LF (If he is open to moving to Left, if not insert Nyjer Morgan here), Carlos Gomez CF, Nyjer Morgan RF. The Brewers need to maximize every opportunity avilable including optimizing its outfield defense late in games when they have the lead.
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Blurb Potential Pitching Rotation Part 4: Randy Wolf
Today is part four in a four part series highlighting Brewers pitchers. Sorry that this is so late.
Once again the stats I made up are the same, if you want to know what they are, look at previous Blurb's from this week.
Overall: Starts: 32, 13-10, 3.61 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 21, Bad Starts: 8
Home: Starts: 15, 7-3, 3.40 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, Short Starts: 1, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 4
Road: Starts: 17, 6-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, Short Starts: 1, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 10, Bad Starts: 4
Wolf's is a good pitcher to have in your rotation because he has similar stats at home and on the road. Wolf has the second most quality starts (21, second to only Gallardo with 22) of the top four starters, but he also has the most bad starts (8).
If the Brewers play the Braves in the first round Wolf is a very valuable pitcher because of the Braves inability to hit lefties (.229 vs. .252 vs lefties). Good thing we have an abundance of lefties in the bullpen, oh wait...
Wolf would be a good #2 starter vs the Braves at home, but because of Gallardo and Grienke road troubles Wolf will have to be pushed down to #4. I would like to see him maybe being used in the bullpen for game 1 or 2, if the opportunity arises. The Braves struggle vs. lefties, and lefties are an endangered species in Milwaukee.
If the Brewers play the Diamondbacks with homefield advantage, I would consider pitching Grienke on 3 days rest if the Brewers are down 2-1. That would and move Wolf, and set up Gallardo pitching Game 5. Although the Diamondbacks aren't as bad hitting lefties as the Braves, another lefty in the pen wouldn't hurt.
The Blurb's Suggested Playoff Rotation:
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4. Wolf
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4. Wolf (Unless Brewers down 2-1 then Grienke pitches)
5. Grienke (Unless Grienke pitches Game 4 then Gallardo would pitch)
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2. Wolf
3. Grienke
4. Gallardo
5. Marcum
No Blurb tomorrow, but one will be up by Tuesday.
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Once again the stats I made up are the same, if you want to know what they are, look at previous Blurb's from this week.
Overall: Starts: 32, 13-10, 3.61 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 21, Bad Starts: 8
Home: Starts: 15, 7-3, 3.40 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, Short Starts: 1, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 4
Road: Starts: 17, 6-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, Short Starts: 1, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 10, Bad Starts: 4
Wolf's is a good pitcher to have in your rotation because he has similar stats at home and on the road. Wolf has the second most quality starts (21, second to only Gallardo with 22) of the top four starters, but he also has the most bad starts (8).
Wolf will also be valuable to the Brewers because he has prior postseason experience. In two prior starts for the Dodgers, Wolf has had two no decisions where he pitched 9 IP, and gave up 5 ER, for an ERA of 5.00
If the Brewers play the Braves in the first round Wolf is a very valuable pitcher because of the Braves inability to hit lefties (.229 vs. .252 vs lefties). Good thing we have an abundance of lefties in the bullpen, oh wait...
Wolf would be a good #2 starter vs the Braves at home, but because of Gallardo and Grienke road troubles Wolf will have to be pushed down to #4. I would like to see him maybe being used in the bullpen for game 1 or 2, if the opportunity arises. The Braves struggle vs. lefties, and lefties are an endangered species in Milwaukee.
If the Brewers play the Diamondbacks with homefield advantage, I would consider pitching Grienke on 3 days rest if the Brewers are down 2-1. That would and move Wolf, and set up Gallardo pitching Game 5. Although the Diamondbacks aren't as bad hitting lefties as the Braves, another lefty in the pen wouldn't hurt.
The Blurb's Suggested Playoff Rotation:
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4. Wolf
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4. Wolf (Unless Brewers down 2-1 then Grienke pitches)
5. Grienke (Unless Grienke pitches Game 4 then Gallardo would pitch)
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2. Wolf
3. Grienke
4. Gallardo
5. Marcum
No Blurb tomorrow, but one will be up by Tuesday.
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Brewers Blurb 9/21 Potential Pitching Rotation Part 3: Yovani Gallardo
For Today's Blurb, we continue the comprehensive look at the starters who should be starting playoff games (Grienke, Marcum, Gallardo, and Wolf). First, lets look at Gallardo's stats.
Once again, the stats that I made up are the same: Short starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP), Bad Starts (Gives up more than 5 ER).
Overall: Starts: 32, 17-10, 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, Short Starts: 4, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 22, Bad Starts: 6
Home: Starts: 15, 10-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 10, Bad Starts: 2
Road: Starts: 17, 7-8, 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Short Starts:2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 12, Bad Stars: 4
Gallardo is a hit or miss starter, you never know what you will get from him. Although that is usually the case, he is on a hot streak lately, and almost unbeatable at home. In his last seven home starts, he has only given up more than two ER just once (8 ER vs . St. Louis). In his last twelve starts only once has he allowed more than 3 ER twice (Both vs. St. Louis).
Gallardo is one of two starters who has postseason experience (the other one being Wolf). In his two postseason appearances in 2008, he pitched 7.0 IP, gave up only four hits, and allowed 0 earned runs (3 unearned). Postseason experience is valuable on a team like the Brewers with little of it to go around.
I trust Gallardo enough to be a number 2 starter at home, and hopefully provide the playoff experience necessary to make a deep run in the playoffs. In a road series, I'd pencil him in Game 4. Keep the pitchers in their comfort zone, and Gallardo's is Miller Park.
The Blurb's Suggested Playoff Rotation
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4. Gallardo
5. Marcum
Predictions:
Yesterday's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Yesterday's Result: Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Record: 3-1
Great start by Marcum on the road. I wonder if they would have used K-Rod in a save situation last night.
Today's Prediction: Cubs 2, Brewers 1
Matt Garza is on fire right now. Randy Wolf still should put up a good outing.
That's all for the Blurb today, tomorrow will conclude the Potential Pitching Rotation series with Randy Wolf.
Once again, the stats that I made up are the same: Short starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP), Bad Starts (Gives up more than 5 ER).
Overall: Starts: 32, 17-10, 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, Short Starts: 4, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 22, Bad Starts: 6
Home: Starts: 15, 10-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 10, Bad Starts: 2
Road: Starts: 17, 7-8, 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Short Starts:2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 12, Bad Stars: 4
Gallardo is a hit or miss starter, you never know what you will get from him. Although that is usually the case, he is on a hot streak lately, and almost unbeatable at home. In his last seven home starts, he has only given up more than two ER just once (8 ER vs . St. Louis). In his last twelve starts only once has he allowed more than 3 ER twice (Both vs. St. Louis).
Gallardo is one of two starters who has postseason experience (the other one being Wolf). In his two postseason appearances in 2008, he pitched 7.0 IP, gave up only four hits, and allowed 0 earned runs (3 unearned). Postseason experience is valuable on a team like the Brewers with little of it to go around.
I trust Gallardo enough to be a number 2 starter at home, and hopefully provide the playoff experience necessary to make a deep run in the playoffs. In a road series, I'd pencil him in Game 4. Keep the pitchers in their comfort zone, and Gallardo's is Miller Park.
The Blurb's Suggested Playoff Rotation
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4. Gallardo
5. Marcum
Predictions:
Yesterday's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Yesterday's Result: Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Record: 3-1
Great start by Marcum on the road. I wonder if they would have used K-Rod in a save situation last night.
Today's Prediction: Cubs 2, Brewers 1
Matt Garza is on fire right now. Randy Wolf still should put up a good outing.
That's all for the Blurb today, tomorrow will conclude the Potential Pitching Rotation series with Randy Wolf.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Brewers Blurb 9/20 Potenital Playoff Rotation Part 2: Shaun Marcum
Disclaimer #1: Before I begin, just a quick note. From now on, I'm not going to be doing any game previews, or Rapid Response's, I will still try to do a full recap the next day, but I will focus on the Blurb as first priority, and if I have time do a recap. The reason for this is that the Blurb's enormous staff (of one person), is trying to juggle college, work, and the Blurb, and foolishly bit off more then he could chew. Another advantage to this, is that I can spend more time on the Blurbs. For example, yesterday's Blurb was lame. It was too short, and there was barely a paragraph of analysis. The reason for that was I trying to do to much. Now with the shortened load I can focus more of my time and energy on the Blurb, and maybe some recaps. Thanks for understanding and enjoy Today's Blurb!
Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs
And now without further ado... The Blurb.
For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.
Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0
Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.
Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .
The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum
Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.
That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).
Predictions:
Yesterday:
Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1
It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!
Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs
And now without further ado... The Blurb.
For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.
Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0
Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.
Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .
The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum
Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.
That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).
Predictions:
Yesterday:
Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1
It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!
Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Monday, September 19, 2011
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Series Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers begin a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs today.
Player to watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun
Can Braun keep up his MLB leading batting average (.336)? Can he get a few home runs, and some RBI's and contend for the triple crown? Probably not going to happen, but you can't count him out.
Chicago Cubs: Bryan LaHair
This 30 year old first baseman only had one other stint in the major leagues, with Seattle, where he hit .250. This year he is hitting .424 for an OPS of 1.300 (But only in 33 AB's) Obviously, he isn't going to be a 1.300 OPS hitter the rest of his career, but he is on a tear right now.
Pitcher to Watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Shaun Marcum
In his last two starts, Shaun Marcum has a 8.04 era. Both of those starts were at home.Marcum is a better pitcher on the road where he will get his start this week, so maybe this is just what he needs to bounce back.
Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza
Garza is on fire. In his last nine starts, he has a 2.54 era with a 4-2. He is a tough pitcher to hit right now, and should present the Brewers with their toughest challenge of the series.
Pitching Matchup's
Note: The Bold text isn't the game prediction, it is just showing the better pitcher right now.
Game 1: Chris Narveson (10-7, 4.40 era) vs. Casey Coleman (2-8, 7.06 era)
Game 2: Shaun Marcum (12-7, 3.40 era) vs. Randy Wells (7-4, 4.93 era)
Game 3: Randy Wolf (13-9, 3.45 era) vs. Matt Garza (8-10, 3.51 era)
Prediction: Brewers win series 2-1
Chris Narveson should win the first game, although I am a little bit worried because this is his first start in a while. But I think that the Cubs will win one of the two other games. But still, winning a road series isn't to bad. Lets Go Brewers and get a 5-1 road series.
Sorry no preview today.
Prediction: Milwaukee 6 Cincinnati 4
Please Comment and Go Brewers
Player to watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun
Can Braun keep up his MLB leading batting average (.336)? Can he get a few home runs, and some RBI's and contend for the triple crown? Probably not going to happen, but you can't count him out.
Chicago Cubs: Bryan LaHair
This 30 year old first baseman only had one other stint in the major leagues, with Seattle, where he hit .250. This year he is hitting .424 for an OPS of 1.300 (But only in 33 AB's) Obviously, he isn't going to be a 1.300 OPS hitter the rest of his career, but he is on a tear right now.
Pitcher to Watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Shaun Marcum
In his last two starts, Shaun Marcum has a 8.04 era. Both of those starts were at home.Marcum is a better pitcher on the road where he will get his start this week, so maybe this is just what he needs to bounce back.
Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza
Garza is on fire. In his last nine starts, he has a 2.54 era with a 4-2. He is a tough pitcher to hit right now, and should present the Brewers with their toughest challenge of the series.
Pitching Matchup's
Note: The Bold text isn't the game prediction, it is just showing the better pitcher right now.
Game 1: Chris Narveson (10-7, 4.40 era) vs. Casey Coleman (2-8, 7.06 era)
Game 2: Shaun Marcum (12-7, 3.40 era) vs. Randy Wells (7-4, 4.93 era)
Game 3: Randy Wolf (13-9, 3.45 era) vs. Matt Garza (8-10, 3.51 era)
Prediction: Brewers win series 2-1
Chris Narveson should win the first game, although I am a little bit worried because this is his first start in a while. But I think that the Cubs will win one of the two other games. But still, winning a road series isn't to bad. Lets Go Brewers and get a 5-1 road series.
Sorry no preview today.
Prediction: Milwaukee 6 Cincinnati 4
Please Comment and Go Brewers
Blurb 9/19 Potential Playoff Rotation Part 1: Zack Grienke
Note: For the purposes of this argument, I am assuming that the Brewers will play the Braves in the NLDS with home-field advantage. If that is not the case, than I will adjust accordingly if that situatuion presents itself.
The 2011 playoffs are coming sooner than you think, but who should start where? Should it be Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, Wolf? Or should we drop Wolf and put him in the bullpen? There are many questions regarding the playoff rotation, and in the Blurb this week, I will examine in a four-part series each of the starters that would be pitching for the Brewers in the postseason (Narveson is not included). Lets start with the number 1 starter in the rotation right now. Zack Grienke
First lets look at his stats.
Overall: 15-6, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, Short Starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP): 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad starts (Gives up more than 5 ER): 4
Home: 10-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, Short Starts: 0, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 1
Road: 5-6, 4.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 3
Grienke is a different pitcher at home than he is on the road. In the confines of Miller Park, he is an ace, but on the road he's a back of the rotation guy. Or is he? In his last 14 starts (since July 8th) , he has only given up more than 2 ER once (the one exception being the second game of the Pittsburgh doubleheader where he gave up 7 ER in 6.2 IP).
Greinke should start in Game 1 and Game 5 in the NLDS. That would set him up to have two home games, which should equal two victories.
The 2011 playoffs are coming sooner than you think, but who should start where? Should it be Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, Wolf? Or should we drop Wolf and put him in the bullpen? There are many questions regarding the playoff rotation, and in the Blurb this week, I will examine in a four-part series each of the starters that would be pitching for the Brewers in the postseason (Narveson is not included). Lets start with the number 1 starter in the rotation right now. Zack Grienke
First lets look at his stats.
Overall: 15-6, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, Short Starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP): 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad starts (Gives up more than 5 ER): 4
Home: 10-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, Short Starts: 0, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 1
Road: 5-6, 4.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 3
Grienke is a different pitcher at home than he is on the road. In the confines of Miller Park, he is an ace, but on the road he's a back of the rotation guy. Or is he? In his last 14 starts (since July 8th) , he has only given up more than 2 ER once (the one exception being the second game of the Pittsburgh doubleheader where he gave up 7 ER in 6.2 IP).
Greinke should start in Game 1 and Game 5 in the NLDS. That would set him up to have two home games, which should equal two victories.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Milwaukee Brewers 8 Cincinnati Reds 1 Full Recap
The Brewers are a pitching-first team. Last year, I couldn’t imagine ever saying it, but this series proved why that is true. The Brewers were sliding, but then Wolf, Gallardo, and Grienke pitched three strong outings, and completed the sweep of the Reds. During which, the bats came alive. This team has a good lineup, but isn’t a hitting first team, which is a good recipe for a deep playoff run.
Now on to the actual game. Grienke could have won the game yesterday with almost no help at all. Greinke was pitching a no-hitter through 4.2 IP, and only gave up two hits the whole day. During one stretch yesterday, all six outs in a row were strikeouts (it would have been consecutive strikeouts, but Betancourt had an error). Grienke had one rough inning, but he got out of it with just one run given up. Zack pitched strong into the seventh until he was lifted for Dillard, and eventually Saito who both had one-two-three innings. Saito’s performance was especially impressive given the fact that he got through his inning needing only five pitches. Saito’s cause was helped out by a spectacular diving play by Carlos Gomez. That is a great sign for Gomez, as he looks confident in the shoulder again. But the story of the day for the defensive side defiantly was Zack Grienke.
There was also an offensive explosion yesterday, particularly in the first two innings where the Brewers jumped out to a 7-0 lead. Top performers of the day include: Prince Fielder (), Ryan Braun (3/4) raised his average to .336 today leading the majors, Corey Hart (With a homer, double, and a single), Rickie Weeks (Double, 2-rbi single), Logan Schafer got his first MLB hit, but Carlos Gomez had the best day of all. Even though he only went ___ he had a homer, nearly had another, and a ____. Combine that with his defense, and there is no question on who should win Position Player of the Day.
Pitching Player of the Game: Zack Grienke (7.0 IP, 2H, 1ER, 10K)
Position Player of the Game: Carlos Gomez
The Brewers magic number is down to four.
Later today, the Blurb will begin its four part series to determine the order of the rotation vs. the Braves, and the Diamondbacks should they play either team at home in a five game series. The order in which I will be discussing each pitcher has in no way any determination on what the Blurb believes its role should be in the playoffs.
Blurb Schedule
Monday: Potential Playoff Rotation Part 1: Zack Grienke
Tuesday: Potential Playoff Rotation Part 2: Shaun Marcum
Wednesday: Potential Playoff Rotation Part 3: Yovanni Gallardo
Thursday: Potential Playoff Rotation Part 4: Randy Wolf
Friday: Week In Review/Brewer of the Week
Saturday and Sunday: No Blurb
Please comment, and GO BREWERS! Lets get another sweep!
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