For Today's Blurb, we continue the comprehensive look at the starters who should be starting playoff games (Grienke, Marcum, Gallardo, and Wolf). First, lets look at Gallardo's stats.
Once again, the stats that I made up are the same: Short starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP), Bad Starts (Gives up more than 5 ER).
Overall: Starts: 32, 17-10, 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, Short Starts: 4, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 22, Bad Starts: 6
Home: Starts: 15, 10-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 10, Bad Starts: 2
Road: Starts: 17, 7-8, 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Short Starts:2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 12, Bad Stars: 4
Gallardo is a hit or miss starter, you never know what you will get from him. Although that is usually the case, he is on a hot streak lately, and almost unbeatable at home. In his last seven home starts, he has only given up more than two ER just once (8 ER vs . St. Louis). In his last twelve starts only once has he allowed more than 3 ER twice (Both vs. St. Louis).
Gallardo is one of two starters who has postseason experience (the other one being Wolf). In his two postseason appearances in 2008, he pitched 7.0 IP, gave up only four hits, and allowed 0 earned runs (3 unearned). Postseason experience is valuable on a team like the Brewers with little of it to go around.
I trust Gallardo enough to be a number 2 starter at home, and hopefully provide the playoff experience necessary to make a deep run in the playoffs. In a road series, I'd pencil him in Game 4. Keep the pitchers in their comfort zone, and Gallardo's is Miller Park.
The Blurb's Suggested Playoff Rotation
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4. Gallardo
5. Marcum
Predictions:
Yesterday's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Yesterday's Result: Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Record: 3-1
Great start by Marcum on the road. I wonder if they would have used K-Rod in a save situation last night.
Today's Prediction: Cubs 2, Brewers 1
Matt Garza is on fire right now. Randy Wolf still should put up a good outing.
That's all for the Blurb today, tomorrow will conclude the Potential Pitching Rotation series with Randy Wolf.
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Brewers Blurb 9/20 Potenital Playoff Rotation Part 2: Shaun Marcum
Disclaimer #1: Before I begin, just a quick note. From now on, I'm not going to be doing any game previews, or Rapid Response's, I will still try to do a full recap the next day, but I will focus on the Blurb as first priority, and if I have time do a recap. The reason for this is that the Blurb's enormous staff (of one person), is trying to juggle college, work, and the Blurb, and foolishly bit off more then he could chew. Another advantage to this, is that I can spend more time on the Blurbs. For example, yesterday's Blurb was lame. It was too short, and there was barely a paragraph of analysis. The reason for that was I trying to do to much. Now with the shortened load I can focus more of my time and energy on the Blurb, and maybe some recaps. Thanks for understanding and enjoy Today's Blurb!
Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs
And now without further ado... The Blurb.
For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.
Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0
Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.
Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .
The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum
Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.
That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).
Predictions:
Yesterday:
Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1
It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!
Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs
And now without further ado... The Blurb.
For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.
Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0
Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.
Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .
The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation
vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke
vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum
Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.
That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).
Predictions:
Yesterday:
Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1
It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!
Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Monday, September 19, 2011
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Series Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers begin a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs today.
Player to watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun
Can Braun keep up his MLB leading batting average (.336)? Can he get a few home runs, and some RBI's and contend for the triple crown? Probably not going to happen, but you can't count him out.
Chicago Cubs: Bryan LaHair
This 30 year old first baseman only had one other stint in the major leagues, with Seattle, where he hit .250. This year he is hitting .424 for an OPS of 1.300 (But only in 33 AB's) Obviously, he isn't going to be a 1.300 OPS hitter the rest of his career, but he is on a tear right now.
Pitcher to Watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Shaun Marcum
In his last two starts, Shaun Marcum has a 8.04 era. Both of those starts were at home.Marcum is a better pitcher on the road where he will get his start this week, so maybe this is just what he needs to bounce back.
Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza
Garza is on fire. In his last nine starts, he has a 2.54 era with a 4-2. He is a tough pitcher to hit right now, and should present the Brewers with their toughest challenge of the series.
Pitching Matchup's
Note: The Bold text isn't the game prediction, it is just showing the better pitcher right now.
Game 1: Chris Narveson (10-7, 4.40 era) vs. Casey Coleman (2-8, 7.06 era)
Game 2: Shaun Marcum (12-7, 3.40 era) vs. Randy Wells (7-4, 4.93 era)
Game 3: Randy Wolf (13-9, 3.45 era) vs. Matt Garza (8-10, 3.51 era)
Prediction: Brewers win series 2-1
Chris Narveson should win the first game, although I am a little bit worried because this is his first start in a while. But I think that the Cubs will win one of the two other games. But still, winning a road series isn't to bad. Lets Go Brewers and get a 5-1 road series.
Sorry no preview today.
Prediction: Milwaukee 6 Cincinnati 4
Please Comment and Go Brewers
Player to watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun
Can Braun keep up his MLB leading batting average (.336)? Can he get a few home runs, and some RBI's and contend for the triple crown? Probably not going to happen, but you can't count him out.
Chicago Cubs: Bryan LaHair
This 30 year old first baseman only had one other stint in the major leagues, with Seattle, where he hit .250. This year he is hitting .424 for an OPS of 1.300 (But only in 33 AB's) Obviously, he isn't going to be a 1.300 OPS hitter the rest of his career, but he is on a tear right now.
Pitcher to Watch:
Milwaukee Brewers: Shaun Marcum
In his last two starts, Shaun Marcum has a 8.04 era. Both of those starts were at home.Marcum is a better pitcher on the road where he will get his start this week, so maybe this is just what he needs to bounce back.
Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza
Garza is on fire. In his last nine starts, he has a 2.54 era with a 4-2. He is a tough pitcher to hit right now, and should present the Brewers with their toughest challenge of the series.
Pitching Matchup's
Note: The Bold text isn't the game prediction, it is just showing the better pitcher right now.
Game 1: Chris Narveson (10-7, 4.40 era) vs. Casey Coleman (2-8, 7.06 era)
Game 2: Shaun Marcum (12-7, 3.40 era) vs. Randy Wells (7-4, 4.93 era)
Game 3: Randy Wolf (13-9, 3.45 era) vs. Matt Garza (8-10, 3.51 era)
Prediction: Brewers win series 2-1
Chris Narveson should win the first game, although I am a little bit worried because this is his first start in a while. But I think that the Cubs will win one of the two other games. But still, winning a road series isn't to bad. Lets Go Brewers and get a 5-1 road series.
Sorry no preview today.
Prediction: Milwaukee 6 Cincinnati 4
Please Comment and Go Brewers
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Player of the Week
The Brewers Blurb first player of the week is...
Prince Fielder!
Prediction
Milwaukee 3 Cincinnati 1
Sorry for no preview. Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Prince Fielder!
Prediction
Milwaukee 3 Cincinnati 1
Sorry for no preview. Please Comment and Go Brewers!
Friday, September 16, 2011
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Game Preview Part 3: Predicition
The Milwaukee Brewers are the better team on paper, but is it just me or do they always struggle against the Reds espically away from home. But Bronson Arroyo is just too bad of a pitcher, and I just fell that the Brewers are on the verge of a run.
Prediction: Milwaukee 5 Cinncinnati 4
Please Comment and Go Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee 5 Cinncinnati 4
Please Comment and Go Brewers
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