Brewers Blurb 9/20 Potenital Playoff Rotation Part 2: Shaun Marcum

Disclaimer #1: Before I begin, just a quick note. From now on, I'm not going to be doing any game previews, or Rapid Response's, I will still try to do a full recap the next day, but I will focus on the Blurb as first priority, and if I have time do a recap. The reason for this is that the Blurb's enormous staff (of one person), is trying to juggle college, work, and the Blurb, and foolishly bit off more then he could chew. Another advantage to this, is that I can spend more time on the Blurbs. For example, yesterday's Blurb was lame. It was too short, and there was barely a paragraph of analysis. The reason for that was I trying to do to much. Now with the shortened load I can focus more of my time and energy on the Blurb, and maybe some recaps. Thanks for understanding and enjoy Today's Blurb!

Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs

And now without further ado... The Blurb.

For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.

Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0

Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.

Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .

The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation

vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum

Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.

That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).

Predictions:

Yesterday:

Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1

It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!

Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Please Comment and Go Brewers!

Milwaukee Brewers 6 Cincinnati Reds 3 Rapid Response

Every games recap here at the Blurb will be done in two phases:

1. The Rapid Response will usually be posted within one hour of the completion of the game (Player of the Game finalists will be named)
2. The Full Recap will be posted the next day. The point of this is to sleep on the game before I write a full recap, so as to better objectively cover the game (Player of the Game named)

Here is the Rapid Response.

Brilliant move by Ron Roenicke by starting Mark Kotsay today. Kotsay probably should have gone 3-4 today if it weren't for Brandon Phillips amazing catch.

The sixth spot contained two players with sizable hitless streaks Jerry Hairston Jr. (0 hits in his last 18 AB's), and Taylor Green (0 hits in his last 10 AB's).

I wish they would let Logan Schafer bat sometime, or at least let him play in the field (maybe they did and I missed it) instead of always only having him pinch-run. It would be refreshing to see him instead of Carlos Gomez in one of these garbage games.

Interesting decision to let Lucroy catch the 9th, either Roenicke has confidence in Lucroy's catching ability to let him catch in the 9th instead of Kottaras, or he just wants Lucroy to get some more practice. Maybe all of this speculation about Kottaras being a better catcher than Lucroy is wrong?

Congrats on entering the 30-30 club Ryan Braun. You are only the second player in Brewer history to accomplish this tremendous feat. The other player was Tommy Harper who did it in 1970.

Also congrats on 40 consecutive saves for John Axford only two more to get to half of Eric Gange's 84 consecutive saves.

Pre-Game Prediction: Brewers 5 Reds 4

Result: Brewers 6 Reds 3

Record: 1-0

Hey, at least I got the winner, and the runs scored correct

Finalists for Players of the Game

Ryan Braun, Randy Wolf, Mark Kotsay, John Axford

Sorry this is up so late, more coverage from tonight's game tomorrow, including the Player of the Game award.

Please Comment and Go Brewers.