Blurb 10/11: No More NLCS Starts for Marcum

Shaun Marcum right now is not himself, and he is costing the Brewers a chance to advance to the World Series. In his last six starts (four regular season, two postseason), he has given up 30 runs in 33 innings pitched for a 8.18 ERA. He has a had one great start in that time frame (8 IP, 1ER), but besides that, there has been many nightmarish starts for Marcum. He is a detriment to the Brewers, and their success right now. I love Shaun Marcum, he is a good pitcher, and I have loved watching him throughout the season, but that shouldn't change what needs to be done. The window for success in the playoffs is so small that everyone needs to be performing at the top of their game, if they are not, they need to be replaced.


Ok, you may be saying, hypothetically if the Brewers do replace Shaun Marcum, who is this pitcher who can produce better. Here are three options to make up for a Marcum-less rotation:


1. Pitch everyone on short rest, and make your playoff rotation a three-man rotation (Game 3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Gallardo, 7 Grienke)
2. Marco Estrada (3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Estrada, 7 Gallardo)
3. Chris Narveson (3 Gallardo, 4 Grienke, 5 Wolf, 6 Narveson, 7 Gallardo)


#1 shouldn't happen, and won't happen. The organization, I believe, doesn't feel comfortable pitching Grienke on short rest. End of story.


#2 is what I believe the Brewers should do even though it may cause a lot of second guessing especially if they are wrong. Also Marco Estrada should only start if the Brewers have a 3-2 game lead going into Game 6. Marco shouldn't be the pitcher trying to stave off elimination especially in his first postseason start. If that situation occurred, and it failed, Roenicke would never hear the end of it. But if Estrada does lose a start if the Brewers have the lead, they still have Gallardo at home to go to the World Series. I will take that ten out of ten times.

#3 is another decent option. Chris Narveson has proven to be an average starter throughout the year which is still an improvement over what the rotation has given us so far. But as a starter, Chris Narveson (4.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) has been inferior to Marco Estrada (3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) especially at home (Chris Narveson home: 4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, Marco Estrada as a starter at home: 2.74 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).

Desperate times call for desperate measures. I believe that Marcum needs to take at least one start off to regain his composure. If Estrada does good, ride the hot hand. If Estrada struggles, replace him with Narveson, if Narveson struggles then you can go back to Marcum.

Marco Estrada should start in game 6, especially if the Brewers are leading 3-2. Even if Estrada can only pitch around 70 pitches, it will still be around what Marcum has pitched the last two games. Narveson can then come in until the 5th or 6th and set up Saxrod (SAito, AXford, k-ROD).

As we Brewers fans know all to well, playoff appearances don't come around to often. Loyalty to a player, in this case Shaun Marcum, should not trump what needs to be done in the playoffs to win the World Series.

Go Brewers and Please Comment.

Brewers Blurb 9/20 Potenital Playoff Rotation Part 2: Shaun Marcum

Disclaimer #1: Before I begin, just a quick note. From now on, I'm not going to be doing any game previews, or Rapid Response's, I will still try to do a full recap the next day, but I will focus on the Blurb as first priority, and if I have time do a recap. The reason for this is that the Blurb's enormous staff (of one person), is trying to juggle college, work, and the Blurb, and foolishly bit off more then he could chew. Another advantage to this, is that I can spend more time on the Blurbs. For example, yesterday's Blurb was lame. It was too short, and there was barely a paragraph of analysis. The reason for that was I trying to do to much. Now with the shortened load I can focus more of my time and energy on the Blurb, and maybe some recaps. Thanks for understanding and enjoy Today's Blurb!

Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs

And now without further ado... The Blurb.

For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.

Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0

Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.

Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .

The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation

vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum

Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.

That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).

Predictions:

Yesterday:

Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1

It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!

Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Please Comment and Go Brewers!