Brewers Blurb 9/20 Potenital Playoff Rotation Part 2: Shaun Marcum

Disclaimer #1: Before I begin, just a quick note. From now on, I'm not going to be doing any game previews, or Rapid Response's, I will still try to do a full recap the next day, but I will focus on the Blurb as first priority, and if I have time do a recap. The reason for this is that the Blurb's enormous staff (of one person), is trying to juggle college, work, and the Blurb, and foolishly bit off more then he could chew. Another advantage to this, is that I can spend more time on the Blurbs. For example, yesterday's Blurb was lame. It was too short, and there was barely a paragraph of analysis. The reason for that was I trying to do to much. Now with the shortened load I can focus more of my time and energy on the Blurb, and maybe some recaps. Thanks for understanding and enjoy Today's Blurb!

Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs

And now without further ado... The Blurb.

For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.

Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0

Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.

Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .

The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation

vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum

Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.

That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).

Predictions:

Yesterday:

Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1

It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!

Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Please Comment and Go Brewers!

Blurb 9/19 Potential Playoff Rotation Part 1: Zack Grienke

Note: For the purposes of this argument, I am assuming that the Brewers will play the Braves in the NLDS with home-field advantage. If that is not the case, than I will adjust accordingly if that situatuion presents itself.

The 2011 playoffs are coming sooner than you think, but who should start where? Should it be Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, Wolf? Or should we drop Wolf and put him in the bullpen? There are many questions regarding the playoff rotation, and in the Blurb this week, I will examine in a four-part series each of the starters that would be pitching for the Brewers in the postseason (Narveson is not included). Lets start with the number 1 starter in the rotation right now. Zack Grienke

First lets look at his stats.

Overall: 15-6, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, Short Starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP): 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad starts (Gives up more than 5 ER): 4
Home: 10-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, Short Starts: 0, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 1
Road: 5-6, 4.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 3

Grienke is a different pitcher at home than he is on the road. In the confines of Miller Park, he is an ace, but on the road he's a back of the rotation guy. Or is he? In his last 14 starts (since July 8th) , he has only given up more than 2 ER once (the one exception being the second game of the Pittsburgh doubleheader where he gave up 7 ER in 6.2 IP).

Greinke should start in Game 1 and Game 5 in the NLDS. That would set him up to have two home games, which should equal two victories.

Milwaukee Brewers 8 Cincinnati Reds 1 Rapid Response

The Milwaukee swept the Reds with a 8-1 victory today.

Zack Grienke pitched a dominant seven innings, with ten strikeouts, and only giving up two hits and one run. I love how the pitching staff is trying to 1-up each other.

Yuniesky Betancourt has had errors in three consecutive games.

Casey McGeehe is hitless in his last 15 AB, and Taylor Green's hitless streak is at 10.

Schafer got his first hit! Roenicke must have been reading this blog.

How about the speed in the outfield in the 9th (Schafer, Gomez, Morgan). When Nyjer Morgan is your left fielder, you have got some speed.

Nice job by Gomez getting a two-hit game (including that homer). If he can provide any kind of offensive contribution at all (even a .240/.290/.400 type line) with the speed that he has, and his defensive skills, he can be a very dangerous weapon.

Aren't you glad that we have Braun for the rest of his career? 3/4 today raised his batting average to .336.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Game Preview

Milwaukee goes for the sweep, but can Matt Maloney and the Reds stop them?

Pitching for the Brewers today is Zack Grienke (14-6, 3.87 ERA). Grienke has given up more than two earned runs only once in his last thirteen starts. His strongest pitch is his slider which is almost 14 runs above average.

His opponent today is Matt Maloney (0-2, 6.88 ERA). Maloney has only started 1 game in his 7 games pitched this year, in that game he gave up 3 ER in 2 IP. Matt only has one plus pitch which is his changeup (1.6 runs above average) and he throws it a bunch (26% of the time).

Advantage: Brewers

Note: All stats vs. opposing pitchers in the last 5 yearsa

Brewers Lineup

1. RF Corey Hart (.281 Avg/.354 OBP/.502 SLG) vs. Maloney (.000/0 HR/0 RBI)
2. CF Carlos Gomez (.214/.262/.364) vs. Maloney (.000/0/0)
3. LF Ryan Braun (.333/.398/.595) vs. Maloney (.000/0/0)
4. 1B Prince Fielder (.297/.411/.547) vs. Maloney (.000/0/0)
5. 2B Rickie Weeks (.270/.350/.473) vs. Maloney (.000/0/0)
6. 3B Casey McGeehe (.230/.287/.351) vs. Maloney (1.000/0/0)
7. SS Yuniesky Betancourt (.251/.270/.378) vs. Maloney (.000/0/0)
8. C Jonathon Lucroy (.264/.308/.388) vs. Maloney (.000/0/0)
9. P Zack Grienke (.167/.222/.238)

Reds Lineup

1. 2B Brandon Phillips (.296/.347/.447) vs. Greinke (.167/0 HR/0 RBI)
2. SS Edgar Renteria (.260/.319/.363) vs. Grienke (.250/0/1)
3. 1B Joey Votto (.320/.429/.549) vs. Grienke (.500/3/3)
4. RF Jay Bruce (.259/.344/.483) vs. Grienke (.200/0/2)
5. LF Yonder Alonso (.364/.437/.610) vs. Greinke (.000/0/0)
6. 3B Juan Francisco (.238/.273/.429) vs. Greinke (.000/0/0)
7. CF Drew Stubbs (.247/.322/.369) vs. Greinke (.566/0/0)
8. C Devin Mesoraco (.174/.208/.391) vs. Grienke (.000/0/0)
9. P Matt Maloney (.000/.000/.000)

Position Comparaison

1B: Advantage: Cincinnati
2B: Cincinnati
SS: Cincinnati
3B: Milwaukee
LF: Milwaukee
CF: Cincinnati
RF: Milwaukee
C: Milwaukee