Blurb Potential Pitching Rotation Part 4: Randy Wolf

Today is part four in a four part series highlighting Brewers pitchers. Sorry that this is so late.

Once again the stats I made up are the same, if you want to know what they are, look at previous Blurb's from this week.


Overall: Starts: 32, 13-10, 3.61 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 21, Bad Starts: 8
Home: Starts: 15, 7-3, 3.40 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, Short Starts: 1, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 4
Road: Starts: 17, 6-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, Short Starts: 1, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 10, Bad Starts: 4

Wolf's is a good pitcher to have in your rotation because he has similar stats at home and on the road. Wolf has the second most quality starts (21, second to only Gallardo with 22) of the top four starters, but he also has the most bad starts (8).

Wolf will also be valuable to the Brewers because he has prior postseason experience. In two prior starts for the Dodgers, Wolf has had two no decisions where he pitched 9 IP, and gave up 5 ER, for an ERA of 5.00

If the Brewers play the Braves in the first round Wolf is a very valuable pitcher because of the Braves inability to hit lefties (.229 vs. .252 vs lefties). Good thing we have an abundance of lefties in the bullpen, oh wait...

Wolf would be a good #2 starter vs the Braves at home, but because of Gallardo and Grienke road troubles Wolf will have to be pushed down to #4. I would like to see him maybe being used in the bullpen for game 1 or 2, if the opportunity arises. The Braves struggle vs. lefties, and lefties are an endangered species in Milwaukee.

If the Brewers play the Diamondbacks with homefield advantage, I would consider pitching Grienke on 3 days rest if the Brewers are down 2-1. That would and move Wolf, and set up Gallardo pitching Game 5. Although the Diamondbacks aren't as bad hitting lefties as the Braves, another lefty in the pen wouldn't hurt.

The Blurb's Suggested Playoff Rotation:

vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4. Wolf
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4. Wolf (Unless Brewers down 2-1 then Grienke pitches)
5. Grienke (Unless Grienke pitches Game 4 then Gallardo would pitch)

vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2. Wolf
3. Grienke
4. Gallardo
5. Marcum

No Blurb tomorrow, but one will be up by Tuesday.

Please Comment and Go Brewers!

Brewers Blurb 9/21 Potential Pitching Rotation Part 3: Yovani Gallardo

For Today's Blurb, we continue the comprehensive look at the starters who should be starting playoff games (Grienke, Marcum, Gallardo, and Wolf). First, lets look at Gallardo's stats.

Once again, the stats that I made up are the same: Short starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP), Bad Starts (Gives up more than 5 ER).

Overall: Starts: 32, 17-10, 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, Short Starts: 4, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 22, Bad Starts: 6
Home: Starts: 15, 10-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 1, Quality Starts: 10, Bad Starts: 2
Road: Starts: 17, 7-8, 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Short Starts:2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 12, Bad Stars: 4

Gallardo is a hit or miss starter, you never know what you will get from him. Although that is usually the case, he is on a hot streak lately, and almost unbeatable at home. In his last seven home starts, he has only given up more than two ER just once (8 ER vs . St. Louis). In his last twelve starts only once has he allowed more than 3 ER twice (Both vs. St. Louis).

Gallardo is one of two starters who has postseason experience (the other one being Wolf). In his two postseason appearances in 2008, he pitched 7.0 IP, gave up only four hits, and allowed 0 earned runs (3 unearned). Postseason experience is valuable on a team like the Brewers with little of it to go around.

I trust Gallardo enough to be a number 2 starter at home, and hopefully provide the playoff experience necessary to make a deep run in the playoffs. In a road series, I'd pencil him in Game 4. Keep the pitchers in their comfort zone, and Gallardo's is Miller Park.

The Blurb's Suggested Playoff Rotation

vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Home

1. Grienke
2. Gallardo
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Road

1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4. Gallardo
5. Marcum

Predictions:

Yesterday's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Yesterday's Result: Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Record: 3-1

Great start by Marcum on the road. I wonder if they would have used K-Rod in a save situation last night.

Today's Prediction: Cubs 2, Brewers 1

Matt Garza is on fire right now. Randy Wolf still should put up a good outing.

That's all for the Blurb today, tomorrow will conclude the Potential Pitching Rotation series with Randy Wolf.

Brewers Blurb 9/20 Potenital Playoff Rotation Part 2: Shaun Marcum

Disclaimer #1: Before I begin, just a quick note. From now on, I'm not going to be doing any game previews, or Rapid Response's, I will still try to do a full recap the next day, but I will focus on the Blurb as first priority, and if I have time do a recap. The reason for this is that the Blurb's enormous staff (of one person), is trying to juggle college, work, and the Blurb, and foolishly bit off more then he could chew. Another advantage to this, is that I can spend more time on the Blurbs. For example, yesterday's Blurb was lame. It was too short, and there was barely a paragraph of analysis. The reason for that was I trying to do to much. Now with the shortened load I can focus more of my time and energy on the Blurb, and maybe some recaps. Thanks for understanding and enjoy Today's Blurb!

Disclaimer #2: I use some "stats" that I made up in this blurb, here are their definitions.
Short Starts = Starts less than 5.0 IP
Bad Starts = Gives up 5 or more earned runs

And now without further ado... The Blurb.

For today's Blurb we continue the comprehensive look at each of the Brewers starters that would be pitching in the playoffs. Grienke (Monday), Marcum (Today), Gallardo (Wednesday), and Wolf (Thursday). Today we begin our look at Marcum with a quick glance at his stats.

Overall: Starts: 31, 12-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, Short Starts: 3, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad Starts: 5
Home: Starts: Starts: 16, 5-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Short Starts: 1 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 5
Road: Starts: 15, 7-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, Short Starts: 2 (1 due to injury), Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 0

Marucm's stats are the complete opposite of Greinke's. They are perfect rotation partners due to the fact that one is dominant at home, and the other is dominant on the road. That being said, while some of Greinke's and Marcum's numbers may be similar, they aren't all similar. Marcum actually has a lower BAA (.224 compared to Grienke's .237), and a lower HR/FB rate (8.4% compared to Grienke's 13.0%), probably the result of a slower fastball.

Now let's look at Marcum by himself. First get rid of two of his short starts, they were from when he was injured, and the start following that when he pitched only 3 IP. The other short start was from the first game of the year. Since then, he has zero short starts. Think about that, Marcum is giving you at least 5 IP every single time he goes out there. In a playoff game, if you can get your starter to give you at least 5 innings, then Roenicke can proceed to the four closers, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, and Axford, and hopefully win a game. Couple that with his dominant 2.31 ERA on the road (and the not so dominant 4.39 ERA at home) and the choice is clear. Marcum starts Game 3 if they are playing the Braves with homefield advantage (setting up a road start for Marucm). If the Brewers do not have homefield advantage, then Marcum should start Games 1 and 5 with Grienke pitching Game 3 .

The Blurb's Suggegested Playoff Rotation

vs. Braves Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Home
1. Grienke
2.
3. Marcum
4.
5. Grienke

vs. Diamondbacks Road
1. Marcum
2.
3. Grienke
4.
5. Marcum

Another advantage of this rotation, is that if the Brewers have a home series in the first round and it goes five games, they can still set up Marcum to pitch Game 1 of an away series in the next round.

That is all for the Blurb today, now on to the predictions (From now on Predictions will be included in the Blurb).

Predictions:

Yesterday:

Prediction: Brewers 6 Cubs 4
Result: Cubs 5 Brewers 2
Record: 2-1

It was about time I got my first prediction wrong. Nice outing by Dillard, not so much by Estrada. (Check back next week for a Blurb post on Tim Dillard, and Marco Estrada). Hairston broke his hitless streak!

Today's Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Please Comment and Go Brewers!

Blurb 9/19 Potential Playoff Rotation Part 1: Zack Grienke

Note: For the purposes of this argument, I am assuming that the Brewers will play the Braves in the NLDS with home-field advantage. If that is not the case, than I will adjust accordingly if that situatuion presents itself.

The 2011 playoffs are coming sooner than you think, but who should start where? Should it be Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, Wolf? Or should we drop Wolf and put him in the bullpen? There are many questions regarding the playoff rotation, and in the Blurb this week, I will examine in a four-part series each of the starters that would be pitching for the Brewers in the postseason (Narveson is not included). Lets start with the number 1 starter in the rotation right now. Zack Grienke

First lets look at his stats.

Overall: 15-6, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, Short Starts (Starts less than 5.0 IP): 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 19, Bad starts (Gives up more than 5 ER): 4
Home: 10-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, Short Starts: 0, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 11, Bad Starts: 1
Road: 5-6, 4.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, Short Starts: 2, Complete Games: 0, Quality Starts: 8, Bad Starts: 3

Grienke is a different pitcher at home than he is on the road. In the confines of Miller Park, he is an ace, but on the road he's a back of the rotation guy. Or is he? In his last 14 starts (since July 8th) , he has only given up more than 2 ER once (the one exception being the second game of the Pittsburgh doubleheader where he gave up 7 ER in 6.2 IP).

Greinke should start in Game 1 and Game 5 in the NLDS. That would set him up to have two home games, which should equal two victories.